Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.018020 0.020436 0.023062 0.026130 0.029616 0.033457 0.038012
2025-05-18 0.014068 0.017348 0.021227 0.026157 0.032266 0.039597 0.049084
2025-05-25 0.011706 0.015278 0.019749 0.025767 0.033676 0.043742 0.057568
2025-06-01 0.010342 0.014139 0.019119 0.026147 0.035842 0.048791 0.067482
2025-06-08 0.009111 0.012964 0.018225 0.025958 0.037081 0.052576 0.075926
2025-06-15 0.008414 0.012410 0.018068 0.026697 0.039588 0.058239 0.087465
2025-06-22 0.007384 0.011246 0.016895 0.025800 0.039564 0.060171 0.093621
2025-06-29 0.006662 0.010453 0.016169 0.025459 0.040282 0.063190 0.101620
2025-07-06 0.005922 0.009552 0.015179 0.024588 0.040049 0.064661 0.107231
2025-07-13 0.005661 0.009378 0.015296 0.025468 0.042669 0.070847 0.121058
2025-07-20 0.005376 0.009132 0.015268 0.026092 0.044896 0.076550 0.134574
2025-07-27 0.005142 0.008947 0.015314 0.026832 0.047365 0.082843 0.149666
2025-08-03 0.004745 0.008454 0.014812 0.026597 0.048149 0.086362 0.160296
2025-08-10 0.004428 0.008073 0.014469 0.026615 0.049390 0.090805 0.173080
2025-08-17 0.004082 0.007607 0.013931 0.026218 0.049814 0.093769 0.183317
2025-08-24 0.003880 0.007389 0.013822 0.026605 0.051735 0.099670 0.199783
2025-08-31 0.003621 0.007037 0.013431 0.026412 0.052507 0.103422 0.212309
2025-09-07 0.003501 0.006944 0.013523 0.027164 0.055204 0.111160 0.233693
2025-09-14 0.003197 0.006460 0.012814 0.026251 0.054443 0.111888 0.240466
2025-09-21 0.002983 0.006139 0.012402 0.025904 0.054811 0.114936 0.252455
2025-09-28 0.002732 0.005721 0.011759 0.025018 0.053957 0.115342 0.258675
2025-10-05 0.002677 0.005709 0.011948 0.025914 0.057014 0.124345 0.284987
2025-10-12 0.002600 0.005642 0.012015 0.026549 0.059548 0.132419 0.309955